In the Berhalter system, and in many modern possession systems, the classic 10 is phased out in favor of a player that can play comfortably in any position of the middle third. Combined with wingers that invert and cut inside with the ball (think how Pulisic moves in from the left on his right foot) it allows for frequent overlapping and constant movement on the front line with and without the ball. When Berhalter talks about disorganizing an opposing defense with the ball, this movement is a key component.
I’m going to look at the wingers and the 10s together as they are asked to do fairly similar things with the ball. The days of a winger driving to the endline and lofting a hopeful cross time and again are at an end. Instead, smart passes into the penalty area and shot creation for CMs and strikers will dominate wide play.
The uncomfortable truth is that the USA has a big depth problem when it comes to the wing positions; even more so when you consider that three of the elgible players I’m looking at are eligible for other national teams. Efrain Alvarez has played for Mexico; Benji Michel was even initially called up by Haiti for the postponed Olympic Qualifying Tournament. Handwalla Bwana is from what I understand USA-eligible, but he is at least eligible for Kenya as well. Without those three there are very few young, USMNT eligible wingers.
When I started, Anthony Fontana hadn't had enough minutes to be considered. In fairness, he probably should be and if he continues to play he should be in the conversation.
Goal Danger
One of the key jobs for the 10 and the wingers on this team is going to be creating goal danger. They can generate goals by shooting themselves, or by creating for their teammates. Unfortunately, aside from Alvarez all are below average in terms of creating for teammates. Emil Cuello is second best, but is still below average in both creating and shooting. Ferreira, Aaronson, and Lewis create a lot of chances for themselves while still creating chances for teammates above most of their peers. Zelalem and Paredes bring little goal danger in either direction, and would play a much different role than the others.
Lewis, Aaronson, and Ferreira are fairly similar as shooters in terms of chance quality and how often they shoot; of the three Aaronson struggles to get his shots on frame. Alvarez is a high volume shooter that doesn't take the best shots, which hurts his npxg/90 in comparison to others. Bwana doesn't shoot as much but takes good shots and puts them on target. His efficiency is a notable strength of his. Michel is an accurate shooter who takes great shots, but very few shots per 90. In the right setup, he could be a major goal threat from the wing.
Pass Risk and Performance
This is a tricky graph but it cuts to the idea I want to get at; specifically how well do players take risky actions. xPass% is a good metric of pass risk; the lower it is, the more risky passes players are making. As players that need to break down a defense and create goal, risk is a necessary part of the position. Players that beat xPass are capable of taking risks and making good things happen. Passes into the Penalty Area are inherently risky actions, and the graph shows that as PPA goes up, xPass% goes down.
Alvarez once again stands alone as a creator, slicing passes into the penalty area at a remarkable rate. He also completes 3 more passes than the xPass model would predict per 90. Those are chances that wouldn't happen if he wasn't on the field.
Between the goal danger graph and this one, Benji Michel stands out as a remarkably safe player. He takes good high percentage shots and makes high percentage passes. He is a good performer, but probably needs to increase the risks in order to make more of an impact on the game. Amaya and Zelalem are both safer, deeper lying players as well. They probably would be more likely to be 8s than 10s in this system.
Cuello and Lewis are risk taking passers, although only Cuello beats expectations. Aaronson, Paredes, and Ferreira are similar in risk taking, but Ferreira is an absolute disaster according to the xPass model.
Dribbling
On the ball, the 10s and wingers will need to be able to take on defenders 1v1 and win a reasonable number of their duels. Lewis and Bwana stand apart as dribblers, frequently taking on defenders and winning in fairly average ways. Alvarez is again a strong player here, much better than Michel in terms of taking on opponents. Aaronson and Paredes are again similar but Aaronson has the edge in dribbling ability. Ferreira, Zelalem, and Amaya do better than expectations in dribbling despite a lack of frequency.
Pressing
Pressing is going to be a key part of any player's role on this team, as winning the ball back quickly is a strength of this team. This group of players, while not remarkable on offense, is made up of many active and capable pressers; good news for Kreis. Fernandez, Amaya, and Aaronson are above average in both high press attempts and press success, and Amaya wins many tackles high up the field. Efra Alvarez is a surprising name to see up near the top as he has a reputation for not being the most enthusiastic defender.
Michel and Cuello are not very successful in terms of their ability to disrupt buildup. Paredes is active and wins a lot of tackles, separating him from Lewis and Bwana. Ferreira sits by himself as an active but fairly inefficient presser, similar to Cuello but not as extreme.
Overview of the Pool
It's obvious that this area of the team is not the strongest available but it should be more than enough to get the qualifying job done. Efra Alvarez is a player that has a ton of hype, and his numbers show that he is a really high quality player. It would be extremely frustrating to lose him to Mexico permanently without putting some effort into recruiting him back into the lineup. He would be locked in on the right side and a perfect fit for the offense.
Aaronson fits the 10 best as a good dribbler who can create from the midfield and even get his own goal as necessary. Paredes looks like he can do similar things but he is a much younger player and is eligible for the next two U20 cycles. Ferreira is really concerning as both a passer and a presser, and while his experience would make him valuable coming off the bench it's hard to look past his weaknesses at this stage. Amaya and a fit Zelalem are much less dynamic players that can do some things well, but are too conservative to accomplish the goals of the offense.
Lewis and Bwana are both more traditional wingers who do similar things, although experience and production give Lewis the edge right now. Both could be useful players and Bwana has a history of playing both sides of the field. Michel does some things very well but would need to be much more aggressive to get results on the pitch.
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