US Olympic Qualifying Deep Dive Pt. 4 - The Center Midfielders
Soccer formations aren’t real. Everyone pretty much knows that at this point, but it’s still inexplicably pleasing to see a formation chart tweeted out with each player in their nice box. Our brains want to make order out of the chaos. I really appreciate what ESPN has been doing in their broadcasts, showing average positions some time after kickoff and how it relates to the "starting lineup". As viewers, instead of asking if players are in a 4–2–3–1 or 4–3–3, it’s better to ask questions about what specific players do in relation to each other and what their jobs are on the pitch.
One of the key questions is the three or 2 man midfield, and whether or not a double pivot is used. Berhalter has been more slow to use a double pivot, instead preferring to use a single defensive midfielder such as Bradley, Trapp, or the U23 eligible Jackson Yueill to take on the distributive load while covering in front of the CBs. Based on the talent pool, my opinion is that a double pivot would allow tactical flexibility and take advantage of complementary skill sets. To use terms established by American Soccer Analysis (ASA) in their DAVIES article, the USA needs a Offensive Central Progressor and a Defensive Central Progressor that can work help each other. A 6 and 8 might be the traditional term for these players, but many do not quite fit into those boxes exactly.
For the U23 Qualifying team, this might be the deepest and most experienced position. There is an impressive range here from the extremely defensive James Sands, to the very attacking Cole Bassett. What Kreis wants out of his midfield will determine who makes the cut, but there’s no shortage of talent available.
The following midfielders make up who I looked at in detail, though in retrospect I would bump Bassett up to the 10 position for analysis against more similar peers.
Experience
I'll go ahead and point out the obvious with Jackson Yuiell's nearly 3000 professional touches floating just above the midfield line. There's no denying he's had more experience for both club and country than any other candidate. That experience could take him out of the running for a U23 squad, as he may be needed for the senior team. Berhalter seems to like him, and he's unquestionably a good player.
Sands and Parks, the NYCFC duo, combine for a huge proportion of their team's touches as well as both having a great deal of experience. The two of them anchored one of the best teams in MLS last year, and have been key to the fight back under a new manager this year. Pomykal is stalled due to his injury but has received a lot of experience in his career so far. Williamson has been rising up the list after locking in a starting spot for the Timbers. Busio, Dotson, and Mihailovic have been important cogs in their teams as well.The others need more time and more consistency, but have the ability to be quality players when called upon.
In terms of location, Sands gets the majority of his touches deep. Part of this is the fact that he was frequently played as a center back, and as a central midfielder has a little more room to roam. Felipe Hernandez is just getting started and tends to get his touches high up the field. Busio has played much further up in the past, but is transitioning to a deeper lying role this season so his spot may move significantly on this graph.
Progression
The line on the graph from Yueill to Pomykal shows the players who progress the ball very well, with their individual placement revealing their style. Pomykal is more of an out and out dribbler, while Yueill is primarily a safe passer. Parks leans passing and Williamson prefers the ball at his feet, but both are excellent.
Sands is on the ball a great deal, but does not pass into the final third frequently. Again, his role changes can skew his results a bit. Mihailovic looks very safe according to these numbers. Busio is ready to take more of a lead role in his team and over the next years, he should be increasing both passing and carrying numbers. Tessmann and Bassett are young but showing promise. Cerrillo is very active when he is on the field, but doesn't do much when he has the ball.
The remaining players may just be safer in general, which is not a bad thing; the problem is pairing two players who are not comfortable moving the ball down the pitch.
Passing and Shot Creation
There's a lot going on in this chart, and it might be confusing. From left to right we look at G+ Passing per 90, or how many goals the ASA model indicates were added by a players individual passing performance. Notably most players are negative, or individually not passing well enough to add to their team. Even Yueill who carries quite a reputation as a good passer is a net negative over 90 minutes. Pomykal, Williamson, Parks, and Mihailovic grade as net plus passers for their team.
On the vertical axis, we are looking at shot creating actions. This includes dribbling, passing, being fouled, or shooting in a way that a teammate can shoot off the rebound. FBRef calculates these in ways that allow players to get multiple points of credit off one shot, but I do feel it is a valuable metric. Pomykal and Mihailovic create the most shots for teammates by far, with several players clumped into the middle space. Aside from Hernandez, the three at the bottom are fairly defensive players and are not going to be creating shots for teammates.
In the tooltip ASA's xPass% metric is included. It is a useful short hand for risk as a player who takes more risks will have a lower xPass%. It generally follows that players with more SCA will have a lower xPass%. The size of each bubble is based on the number of passes completed above expected per 90. Encouragingly, all players except Mihailovic and Dotson complete over their xPass%. Servania stands out, completing 7 passes per game more than expected.
Shooting
Shooting is not going to be the most important part of the central midfield role, but it will be nice to have players who have goal threat in a pinch. Williamson and Bassett jump out for taking good quality shots, though Williamson could definitely shoot more. Busio shoots a lot, and doesn't get much in the way of npxG from his shots. G+ Shooting loves him, but perhaps their metric overvalues him due to shot quantity.
In the middle, Servania shows up again as a quality shooters. Parks, Mihailovic, and Pomykal are all similar in shooting frequency and quality, although G+ rates Parks as the best of the 3.
At this point, Sands should surprise no one being in the bottom corner of this graph. The remainder don't shoot often and don't shoot from great spots, but that isn't really their role on the pitch.
Consistency
One of the key issues that is a problem with even some experienced USA midfielders is that they take unnecessary risks and lose the ball in unfavorable positions. Consistency and keeping possession is a key in any possession based system, and frequently losing possession means that the central purpose is defeated. It leads to counters high up the field and prevents the team getting into a rhythm.
In this graph, risk actions encompass a variety of moves such as through balls, dribbles, cross-field switches, crosses, and others. Players who take a lot of risks are not inherently bad fits, though it is worth considering what role their risks play in the offense. PE, or possession errors, is miscontrolling the ball or having it taken away by a tackler. PE is weighted against a player's total number of touches per 90.
It fits intuitively that as risk actions go up, errors do as well; again this is not on it's own a bad thing. If teams never take risks, they do not score. The team needs players who take smart risks and make fewer errors based on that. The best fit line is a good way of instantly comparing the group; the players on the right make fewer mistakes than expected, and the players on the left make more.
The younger players make more mistakes as almost a general rule. Sands is the youngest player on the right side of the line, making a tiny number of mistakes and taking few risks. Williamson is a dynamo, taking high risk actions more frequently than any other player but still beating the expectations. Parks, Pomykal, and Mihailovic against cluster together in the middle, but on the good side.
Pressing
On the defensive side, it will be important for whatever central midfielders are chosen to be able to pressure the ball and win it back against the USA's opponents. Mexico, for example, is a team that will attempt to establish possession through the middle and an effective press is key to winning that battle.
The midfielders who play more forward are also the more aggressive pressers in general, aside from Dotson who is very aggressive despite normally pressing deeper players. Dotson also is extremely successful relative to his fellow CMs. In a game where the USA expected to be giving up possession often, he would be very useful. Parks has a similar rate of success, but it less active than Dotson and presses further up the field. Yueill is even less active and slightly less successful.
Sands and Tessman are neither active nor aggressive, but do tend to press well when they choose to do so. Sands ranks in the top 5% of midfielders for his ability to successfully press the ball. It would be most sensible to pair midfielders who usually press in different locations, but a player like Pomykal may need to adjust if paired with a Sands in order not to leave gaps.
Selecting the Midfield Pairing
Finding a compatible partnership in the midfield is one of the most important tasks of a national team coach, and the quality depth available to Kreis makes it more difficult, not less so. There are multiple players who offer styles that could work, and finding the best will be a challenge.
For the more offensive progressors, there are a few clear leaders. Parks, Pomykal, and Williamson have been outstanding in multiple facets of the game.
Pomykal's injuries probably take him out of the running but make no mistake, he is one of the better American prospects at central midfield. Parks is underrated by the USA setup and fans, but he is one of the best American midfielders in MLS. His 2019 season was better than any season from Darlington Nagbe, for example, and according to G+ one of the 10 best seasons from an American midfielder in MLS in the last 5 years. Williamson has taken a long road to get established in MLS, but is on pace to have a top 10 season in 2020, even better than Parks' 2019. These three are head and shoulders above anyone else right now.
Mihailovic has a great deal of experience, plays well, and has a reputation for leadership. He was selected as the team captain of the qualifying squad before the tournament was postponed. Bassett and Busio have good qualities, but as U20 eligible players should get other opportunities.
On the defensive side, Sands is an incredible defender and, at minimum, competent in all other areas as well. It is unlikely that NYCFC would release both Parks and Sands, so it may be Kreis has to pick which one he would prefer. Yueill provides a deeper lying playmaking ability, but his defending is not as good. He may also be called up to a senior squad as well. Dotson is a tremendous defender and would pair well with a more offensive player to defer to in possession. Servania is more aggressive player in possession and not quite as good of a defender but would be a good player to call on from the bench.
It is unlikely that the USA will face a midfield with as much pro experience in the entire tournament, even against Mexico. It should be an area of strength for the entire team.
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