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A Brief Superdraft Analytic Preview

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 In 2021, the MLS Superdraft (now reduced to three rounds) is barely a blip on the sports landscape. With the majority of players in MLS coming from outside the college ranks, does the draft serve a purpose? The immediate success of players like Henry Kessler and Daryl Dike indicates that value can be found in the draft. Obviously, the bulk of that value is in the earliest rounds, but some diamonds in the rough can still be found.  What's in a Pick? What kind of value can be expected in a draft pick? The draft has changed a lot over the years, but looking back at the last 5 drafts there are clear trends that can be seen. I'm using ASA's Raw Goals Added to assess individual player contributions. Because this data does not include goalkeepers, I have left them and their seasons for this analysis. First, I want to look at the seasons players have played over what's available. The draft is in many ways feast or famine; around 75% of players drafted never appear in an MLS g

Young Yanks of the Week: 10/17-10/20 Update

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See the original post here regarding methodology: https://onssoccer.blogspot.com/2020/10/young-yanks-of-week-methodology.html The Team of the Week: Updates/Changes: - G+ Overall is now in the center of the radar - G+ Percentiles for specific areas are now in bars instead of blocks - Radar outlines smaller - Key added on right side - Ball added to indicate goal scored Other notes: - We have a lot of good defenders and not a lot of attackers. Rather than try to figure out how to show a 6-2-2, I pushed DeJuan Jones and Araujo further up - Between the starting XI and the bench, this is every player that recorded a positive G+. Rough "week" for young Americans

Young Yanks of the Week: The Methodology

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In a given week, who were the players that most contributed to victory? We hear a lot from the media about some players, and snatches of highlights can tell us part of the story. Despite this, many performances go unnoticed or unheralded. Goals and assists only tell part of the story, and sometimes a player may score a goal but be not even close to the best player on the field. Even the Audi Index, which presumes to identify the highest performing players, is inscrutable and doesn't seem to truly identify who helped their teams win. That's why I'm attempting something else. I'm not a statistician or a graphic designer, so this is a work in progress, but I hope it will improve as time goes on. First, massive props to American Soccer Analysis for their Goals Added (G+) Measurement. All the hard work is theirs. Read this article for a breakdown of what G+ is, and what it measures. Second, read their article about the visualizations they've created. I am shamelessly s

US Olympic Qualifying Deep Dive Finale: The 11

 This is where it all comes together; building an 11 that can dominate any team in CONCACAF and secure the first qualification in two cycles. I can't help but feel optimistic due to the level of talent across the board. Hopefully looking at these players from a statistical perspective provided depth that wouldn't be there otherwise. Some players can fade in media discussion because they aren't quite as glamorous, but their actual production is solid and worth recognizing. Other times media darlings aren't quite what they're made out to be. It's worth taking a closer look. Of the U20 eligible players (13 of the 55) the only one who is ready now is Efrain Alvarez. The rest need more time, and to work on gaps in their game. The remaining players are a quite strong group and the selection decisions are difficult. Aside from talent and ability, which is the first consideration, there are other issue to take into account. For that reason I will post my preferred 17 (2

US Olympic Qualifying Deep Dive pt. 6 - The Strikers

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  In the tactical setup preferred by Berhalter and Kreis, strikers are the point of the lance - the players who get onto balls, finish attacks, and press defenders hard for 90 full minutes. It's not an elegant role, and it doesn't need a profoundly technically skilled player. In many ways, the player pool is built for this. In general there aren't a lot of smaller, quicker forwards developed by the USA, and those that might be become wingers or 10s. Berhalter's system fits the player pool and produces goals from players such as Zardes, which is the best you can hope for from this group. Shooting Akinola has had a hot start to the season, absolutely blowing up the MLS is back tournament before bowing out due to a muscle injury. The production may not continue like this, but the key to his performance has been shooting a lot of high quality shots. If the quantity goes down a bit and the quality does as well, he's still a top MLS striker, just not

US Olympic Qualifying Deep Dive Pt 5. - Wingers and 10s

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 In the Berhalter system, and in many modern possession systems, the classic 10 is phased out in favor of a player that can play comfortably in any position of the middle third. Combined with wingers that invert and cut inside with the ball (think how Pulisic moves in from the left on his right foot) it allows for frequent overlapping and constant movement on the front line with and without the ball. When Berhalter talks about disorganizing an opposing defense with the ball, this movement is a key component. I’m going to look at the wingers and the 10s together as they are asked to do fairly similar things with the ball. The days of a winger driving to the endline and lofting a hopeful cross time and again are at an end. Instead, smart passes into the penalty area and shot creation for CMs and strikers will dominate wide play.  The uncomfortable truth is that the USA has a big depth problem when it comes to the wing positions; even more so when you consider that three of the elgible pl

US Olympic Qualifying Deep Dive Pt. 4 - The Center Midfielders

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 Soccer formations aren’t real. Everyone pretty much knows that at this point, but it’s still inexplicably pleasing to see a formation chart tweeted out with each player in their nice box. Our brains want to make order out of the chaos. I really appreciate what ESPN has been doing in their broadcasts, showing average positions some time after kickoff and how it relates to the "starting lineup". As viewers, instead of asking if players are in a 4–2–3–1 or 4–3–3, it’s better to ask questions about what specific players do in relation to each other and what their jobs are on the pitch. One of the key questions is the three or 2 man midfield, and whether or not a double pivot is used. Berhalter has been more slow to use a double pivot, instead preferring to use a single defensive midfielder such as Bradley, Trapp, or the U23 eligible Jackson Yueill to take on the distributive load while covering in front of the CBs. Based on the talent pool, my opinion is that a double pivot woul